Action Against Agrofuels

On Thursday 16th October, activists frorm Action Against Agrofuel disrupted the European Biofuels Expo and Conference 2008, the largest agrofuels expo in Europe. A group of activists disguised as delegates entered the expo hall, climbed the wall and dropped banners on the main entrance, The aim of the protest was to highlight the link between agrofuels expansion and deforestation and world hunger. As well as making exascerbating climate change through rainforest destruction, population displacement and associated human right abuses. The expansion of agrofuels has a led to a major increase in the price of the world main staple foods such as maize, rice and wheat.

Paddling in deep waters.

Here is a an excellent article by Johann Hari in the Grauniad.

Meanwhile- China’s neaveau riche are perplexed at the high price of filling up their new cars, American farmers are angry that their grain fed, BSE riddled cattle are not welcome once they’ve travelled half way ’round the world to South Korea, Israel practices bombing runs for Gearge’s farewell bash and the Big Oil Giants return to Iraq after 35 years lusting on the sidelines.

But on the other hand – Good news for a future on two wheels as history’s third-best-ever invention gets some much needed support.

Global Food Crisis

10 suprising implications of high food prices.

“In 1798, Thomas Malthus famously and grimly predicted that population growth would be perennially held in “check” by inherent limits to food production. While the following 200 years have certainly witnessed their fair share of famines and food crises, the supply of food generally kept pace with demand, and life went on. Over the last decade, however, the demand for food has risen faster than supply, causing food prices to climb faster than the rate of inflation. The World Bank noted that since the year 2000, food prices have risen 75%, a figure which conceals even more dramatic increases, such as a 200% increase in the price of wheat and a 250% increase in the price of rice.”

Continued…

Global Food Crisis: Review (podcasts, songs, reports, articles)

The story of the year has to be rising food prices. The details are complex, so beware anyone who gives you a simple explanation. There are both demand and supply side factors–both of which are explained by Lester Brown in this interview (mp3). On the demand side a rapidly growing middle class is moving from grains to the more typical diet of the affluent; meat and vegetables complimented by grains. If you eat any of the various kinds of grain you get a large amount of energy from your food; to get the same amount of energy by eating meat, you have to feed the animal that provides that meat with a larger amount of grain. For example to get one calorie from a cow you need to feed it 6 calories in the form of grain. A second major demand side force is an ever growing global population. Thirdly, the rapid expansion of biofuels, perticularly for US and European markets is an emerging source of demand. The worlds few hundered million motorists are being pitted against the world billion of poor.

“From 1990 through 2005 the growth in grain consumption was around
20’000’000 tones a year, in the last two years…it has jumped to
around 50’000’000 tonnes a year, the difference being roughly 30’000’000 tonnes
per year of additional grain being used to produce ethanol…stated otherwise,
the growth in world demand for grain these last two years from US ethanol
destileries exceedes the world growth in demand from all other
sources”

Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute

On the supply side there are both short term issues such as bad weather in some parts of thw world, and long term issues such as loss of soil qaulity, water table depletion, crop damage due to climate change and shifitng agricultural regions also due to climate change. The relative importance of these factors, now and into the future is very difficult to predict although it is likely that they are all leading in one direction; towards agricultural stress.

The impact of increasing food prices is significant even in the developed world where inflation is not fully reflecting the increasing cost of living for the poor. As staple foods are not optional purchases, rises in these costs are therefore perticularly important for the the most vulnerable in society. In the developing world things are very tough, there have been reports of ‘rice rustling’ (Thailand), grain truck hijacking (Darfur), strikes over wage stagnation (Bangladesh); and riots in many countries around the world including Egypt, Yemen, Cameroon, Mexico and others. Many of these countries are poor but developing, the problems are even more extreme for refugees and those being fed by the World Food Program which has a limited budget.

“The doubling of world wheat, rice, and corn prices has sharply reduced the
availability of food aid, putting the 37 countries that depend on the WFP’s
emergency food assistance at risk. In March, the WFP issued an urgent appeal for
$500 million of additional funds.”

Celsias

Thankfully, as is apparent from the above, we have plenty of food. If we are currentl deciding to burn large qauntities of it as fuel then we have a nother option, which is highly complex and involves not being complete bastards i.e stop burning food. The other major way that we can solve the problem is by eating less meat; from an environmental point of view the whole topic of vegetarianism is more problematic than helpful. Vegetarianism seems to have its own culture; we dont need people to accept an ethos to solve this problem, mearly to encourage healthier diets with a lower proportion of meat. It is also worth noting that whilst such a move is worthwhile, in general markets do respond well to price signals, and currently meet production is hugely subsidised in the US and Europe (hence ‘cash cow’). Perhaps damaging ethanol and meet subsdies should be removed as a first step to resolving this problem. For less obvious and more detailed solutions check out this IIASTD report or briefing.

Related Audio:

1. Lester Brown on the food crisis.
2. The Guardian on the ‘perfect storm’.
3. The Bugle comedy podcast on escalating food prices.

Price of Rice on the Rise

There are many reasons for the price of rice going up. Of course all grain prices are linked to varying degrees so this is part of a wider problem in agricultural production. The most often quoted drivers of increasing prices are the rise of asia up the economic scale, leading to more meat consumption, and more grain required to feed the animals grown for food; the rise of bofuels, perticularly of corn ethanol in the US is also a significant factor.

Other factors such as soil degredation, decline of water qaulity and the effects of climate change on global agriculture through shifting weather patterns and drought, are all likely to add to these pressures in the medium to long term.

If you live in the US then you will be aware of the pressure being exerted on China to unpin its currency. One of the main reasons they dont do this is that they need to subsidise food for the hundereds of millions of extremely impoverished Chineese who are not currently bennefiting from national accension.

• Past article on climate change and rice.

Food prices on the rise.

This is inconvenient for us in the developed world but a serious source of concern for those who spend a large fraction of their income on food. Increasing food prices are to be expected with the acension of China, the role of huge corn subsides is also signifiant.  The real question is are these the only sources to this trend or is food production being stressed by physical limits
such as water availability, soil qaulity etc.,

Limits to Growth and Plan B 2.0 are two books that i would reccomend as a backgrond to this issue.

Global food crisis looms as climate change and fuel shortages bite

A very interesting article was published in the Guardian today. This took my a while to find online as it is a climate change story that has moved out of the Environment section and into the World News section. That, i am sure, is going to be the way that things go.

The key claim of the article is that food prices are spiraling due to biofuels and climate change and that these effects are already politically significant in a large number of countries.

“India, Yemen, Mexico, Burkina Faso and several other countries have had, or been close to, food riots in the last year, something not seen in decades of low global food commodity prices. Meanwhile, there are shortages of beef, chicken and milk in Venezuela and other countries as governments try to keep a lid on food price inflation.”

The situation was summed up best by Lester Brown:

“Lester Brown, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute thinktank, said: “The competition for grain between the world’s 800 million motorists, who want to maintain their mobility, and its 2 billion poorest people, who are simply trying to survive, is emerging as an epic issue.”

According to a Worldwatch Institute article entitled “Climate Change: The Unseen Force Behind Rising Food Prices?“:

“Climate change has been attributed to greater inconsistencies in agricultural conditions, ranging from more-erratic flood and drought cycles to longer growing seasons in typically colder climates. While the increase in Earth’s temperature is making some places wetter, it is also drying out already arid farming regions close to the Equator. This year’s Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report states that “increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.” The decline in production in the face of growing demand can drive up prices in markets that may lack the technology to fight environmental hazards to overall production.”

Climate Change and Rice

Rice is the staple diet for 40% of the worlds population. Effects of climate change on rice are therefore of great significance.

As with all outcomes from climate models when we are looking at precipitation, temperature, and other factors, along with non-climatic factors the conclusions are not definitive or precise. However, the heterogeneity of the situation is significant of itself, and indeed is perhaps the most important aspect of the models. With more than 2-3 degrees warming all the trends are negative and the yields of many crops in many areas are declining, before that point there are a lot of areas making gains, and a lot loosing out. This is not a situation that farmers are going to easily adapt to and large scale migrations from one area to another will be significant without the yield necessarily decreasing.

Unfortuntely areas of Africa are amongst the hardest hit in Tyndall Centre projections:

• Between 0.9 and 1.4°C above 1990, poor farmers income declines globally (Hare 2003). This information may not show in model results for countries whose farmers have a range of incomes.
• Even if there are no overall impacts on the yield of a crop within a country as a whole, this picture can mask a large amount of local variation. For example, in Venezuela where a global temperature rise of 1.4-1.7°C has been predicted to decrease maize yields by 10-15%, 15% decrease maize yield (Gitay . 2001); adaptation could offset 10% of this but it hides huge local variation (Jones &Thornton 2003.

The results are more mixed in China.

Relevant Documents:
Introduction to Rice and Climate Change (effects on rice and contribution by rice farming)
Climate Change and Impacts on Grain in China
Feeding Billions, A Grain at a Time (WSJ, Article)
Least Developed Countries and Climate Change.(IIED)
*Understanding the Regional Effects of Climate Change (Tyndall Centre)

Climate Change: Latin and South America

I thought i`d take a look at Latin America and climate change. I havent written on this before so it makes a nice change, an i`m intending to write an article for Temas on this topic.

It’s remarkably difficult to find information about the region that dosent originate from outwith. This information is perfectly valid but it’s difficult to be sure that it reflects the concerns of the people who live in the region and face the local manifestations of climate change.

Climate change as an issue has several angles: Causes; Environmental and Human Impacts, and Solutions. These are not seperate by any means but worthy of individaul aswell as join inspection.

Background on Latin America can be found here, a list of the main relavent climate change issues can be found here. My previous relavent content can be found under the southamerica label.

A few resources that are relavent to this area.

• Latin America’s (natural and human) contribution to climate change.

1. Fosil Fuel Usage C2,C4,C5,
2. Deforestation and Fires C1,C2,C3,C6,C7

• Environmental and Human impacts of climate change in Latin America. (Map:which nationshave assesed this?)

1. Impact on farming. I1,I5,I8,A3
2. Impact on health. I1,I8,A3
3. Impact on economy. I2,I5,I6,I7,A3
4. Impact on environment. I1,A3
5. Impact of rising sea levels. I3,A3
6. Impact of migration. I4,A3

• Some possible ways to mitigate climate change contributions and adapt to inevitable impacts.

1. Protecting forests. M1,M2
2. Alternatives to Oil, Coal and Gas.M2,M3
3. Adaptation of climate change.A1,A2,A3,

Some good sites with more information.

1. Amazon Watch
2. Carribean Environmental Health Institute
3. The Panos Institute of the Carribean
4. Adaptation days at COP 11

In the Philippines El Nino Means Drought and Huge Carbon Release

According to Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) El Nino cycles are associated with drought in the Philippines.

“Droughts are not generally associated with the Philippines, a country known for its steamy tropical marine climate. But during El Niño cycles, much of the country experiences moderate-to-severe dry periods that can last for a season or more.”

This causes a range of problems, both social and environmental.

“[In] Manila, home to more than 10 million people, it is drought — not typhoons — that has led to rising tensions between urban dwellers and farmers who work just outside the city.”

“According to the IRI, during El Niño, the water inflows into the Angat reservoir are often significantly decreased, placing substantial duress on the domestic water supply and irrigation needs of farmers.”

Whilst the verdict is still open on how the El Nino effect will be altered by climate change, the prevailing view seems to be that the base state of the atmosphere–the normal mode–will become more El Nino like. According to RealClimate there is still much uncertainty as to how this will effect the events themselves, will the fluctuations remain the same (which would lead to more extreme floods and droughts if the atmosphere is already El Nino like) or will the events be tempered (leading to similar levels of extreme events)?

One very recent paper in the journal Nature suggests that extreme droughts and floods will indeed become more prevalent. According to RedBolivia:

Climate experts say new evidence suggests Indonesia’s seasonal rains will diminish as global temperatures continue to rise.

That could mean a devastating blow to the country’s tropical agriculture and spark more haze-producing wildfires each year.

A new study used samples of coral to track rainfall patterns from more than 6,000 years ago. The study was published a few days ago in the journal Nature.

Study co-author Nerilie Abram says the new data suggest an unexpected link between monsoons and droughts in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean.

“And so the implication is that with monsoon strengthening we expect that parts of Asia and India, where you receive monsoon rainfall, are likely to get wetter. But the knock-on effect is that parts of Indonesia and Australia are likely to get dryer,” said Abram.

This year’s drought in Indonesia is caused partly by a natural cycle of cooling in the Indian Ocean much like the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean.

Despite this latest piece of science leading us to suspect a link between climate change and ever stronger droughts in Indonesia the media are by and large continuing there miserable failure to connect the dots. The International Herald Tribune writes that inflation is up in Indonesia but completely fails to mention any possible link between climate change and this economic effect! Another issue where there is no definitive evidence of a climatic cause but where this link is extremely likely and where key drivers are certainly environmental rather than political is the situation in Dar fur, but this is miraculously under reported.

Drought in Indonesia is, however, not simply worrying for the farmers and the nations economy but for the global community. Thanks to rampant deforestation of old growth rain forest and the expansion of agriculture–particularly palm oil plantations into the heart of Indonesia–the number of forest fires has increased dramatically. These fires are not, however limited to the dessicated fringes of rain forest but in many cases have led to the burning of the peat substrate on which the rain forests and newly planted crops reside. Palm oil production in particular is having disastrous effects on the global carbon cycle, high carbon bogs have to be drained in order to create palm oil plantations. Greenhouse gas emissions from this process across Indonesia have insured that in times of extreme drought due to strong El Nino Indonesia has–according to many estimates–supplanted the US for a time as the worlds largest contributor to climate change. Palm oil is, ironically, being used more and more as a source of that green fuel Biodiesil!

Further Reading:

Palm Oil and Peat Fires in Indonesia: Biofuelwatch
Indonesia, Peat Fires and Climate Change: New Scientist
Dar fur and Climate Change: Climate Change News